What products are in short supply in the world (and what is the situation in Latin America)

Expertos advierten que podría haber menos productos disponibles en la época de Navida.

En todo el mundo, los consumidores y las empresas se enfrentan a una escasez de productos, que incluye desde el café hasta el carbón.

Una de las principales causas del problema son las alteraciones en el comercio internacional derivadas de la pandemia de covid-19, pero hay muchos otros elementos en juego.

Expertos advierten que podría haber menos productos disponibles en la época de Navidad y que los atascos en las cadenas de suministro pueden extenderse por varios meses.

Electronic products, cars or toys are stored in containers of cargo ships that do not reach port or waiting to get a space for maritime transport.

In parallel, the semiconductor crisis, another pandemic piglet, keeps certain companies with doubts about their ability to supply a demand that has grown in the context of the economic recovery of 2021.

• To this is added the energy crisis that is hitting several regions of the planet, amid strong inflationary pressures.

These are examples of products that are scarce or experience delays in their deliveries, in some of the largest economies in the world and Latin America.

China: coal and paper

A "perfect storm" in China is affecting customers and businesses, both in the country and abroad.

Shortage is affecting all products, frompaper, food, textiles and toys, even chips for iPhones, explains Michal Meidan, researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Many of those articles, he adds, "can end with little Christmas supply."

The problem is mainly due to aElectric crisis, for which more than 20 Chinese provinces have suffered power outages.

More than half of the country's electricity comes from coal, whose price has increased throughout the world.

Estos costos no se pueden traspasar a los consumidores chinos debido a un estricto control de los precios, por lo que las empresas de energía están reduciendo la producción.

La producción de carbón también se ha visto afectada por nuevos controles de seguridad en las minas, normas ambientales más estrictas y recientes inundaciones, señala Meidan.

Eso significa que incluso mientras aumenta la demanda de productos chinos, se ha pedido a las fábricas que reduzcan el uso de energía o cierren algunos días.

Estados Unidos: juguetes y papel higiénico

En Navidad, “habrá cosas que la gente no podrá conseguir”, advirtió un funcionario de la Casa Blanca.

Toy inventories will be affected, as well as basic products such as toilet paper, bottled water, new clothing and pet food.

Part of the problem is abottleneck in US ports. Four out of 10 containers entering the US. UU. They do it through only two ports: Los Angeles and Long Beach, in California.

Many ships are forced to line up waiting to be able to download their containers.

Both ports now operate 24 hours per day, seven days a week, to try to relieve logistics pressures.

In some cases, the shortage of products in the world's largest economy has also been caused by problems related to pandemic in other countries from which products imports.

For example, Nike American giant, manufactures many of its products in Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, where some factories have been closed due to pandemic.

Even when the products are manufactured, the delivery to the retailers has become more difficult, says Professor Willy Shih, a researcher at the Harvard Business School.

In these months, there has been aIncrease in consumer spendingestadounidenses, pero la interrupción en las fábricas, los puertos y las redes de carreteras y ferrocarriles “sobrecargadas” han creado un cuello de botella, apunta.

India: autos y chips de computadoras

El mayor fabricante de automóviles de India, Maruti Suzuki, ha visto caer en picado su producción, en parte debido a laescasez mundial de semiconductores.

Los chips gestionan funciones como el suministro del motor y el frenado de emergencia. Su escasez está siendo impulsada por problemas relacionados con los efectos de la pandemia en países como Japón y Corea del Sur.

The situation became more critical, since the world demand for chips, which are also used in telephones and computers, was already increasing since before the start of the pandemic, due to issues related to the adoption of 5G technology.

Additional, the change to teleworking, as a consequence of the spread of the virus, caused a strong increase in demand for semiconductors, since employees need laptops or web cameras to work.

The shortage of components that arrives in India has been aggravated by the alteration of the energy supply in the country. Coal reserves are exhausting dangerously.

The economy recovered after the mortal second wave of COVID-19 in the country, which caused an increase in energy demand.

But theglobal coal prices increasedAnd India imports fell. The impact has been widespread, said Zohra Chatterji, former coal of Coal India Limited.

"The entire manufacturing sector (cement, steel and construction), everything is affected once there is coal scarcity."

Families in India will also be affected, experts say, as theelectricity prices.

And high levels of inflation have pushed the prices of basic products such as food and oil.

Nigeria: Cooking gas

Nigeria is experiencing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) gas, which is mainly used to cook.

This happens despite the fact that the country has the largest natural gas reserves in Africa.

The price of LPG rose almost 60% between April and July, an increase that has left many Nigerians without the possibility of buying the product.

As a result, households and companies resorted tocoal or firewood for cooking.

One of the reasons for the price increase is world supply scarcity: the country still depends on the imported LNG.

It is likely that the situation has been aggravated by the depreciation of the local currency and the reintroduction of LNG taxes.

Experts warn that scarcity could have alarming consequences for health and the environment, since people resort to cheaper but more dangerous fuel alternatives.

Latin America: computers, cell phones, appliances and cars

Although the situation is different in each country in Latin America, there are certain patterns that are repeated: delay in the delivery of products to consumers and price increase.

The biggest problems have been presented in electronic products (such as computers, tablets or cell phones), appliances and cars.

But since most of the disorders that international trade is living are a consequence of pandemic, the effects are quite transversal.

Latin America imports many of its products from Asia and, in the current circumstances, maritime transport has increased at alarming levels with 500% increases in the average value of the freight of a container from China to countries in the region.

In that scenario, buyers will probably have to pay higher prices in a context of inflationary rise.

Colombia

“HayDelay in arrivalof some electronic products, appliances, cars and many others, ”says BBC Mundo Javier Díaz, executive president of the National Foreign Trade Association (Analdex).

He explains that the logistics problems derived from the pandemic have generated great profits for shipping companies, but they have done the most difficult things to importers.

Daniel Pardo, a bbc world correspondent in Colombia, says that "although for the moment in Colombia a shortage of products, exports and freight management has not been evidenced."

Prince's stores and union associations have said that for December, and for the “Day without VAT” of November, they hope to have enough inventories to meet the demand. However, they added that Colombia is not the exception in the world scarcity phenomenon, especially in regard to appliances and cell phones, adds Pardo.

Chile

George Lever, Studies Manager of the Santiago Chamber of Commerce (CCS) of Chile, says there is a strong pressure on inventories.

However, he says, consumers have products availability. The big difference is that they must wait longer than usual.

"There are purchases with extended delivery deadlines, as is clear in the case of cars and some durable products, such as furniture, and some electronics and technology lines," says Lever in dialogue with BBC Mundo.

In parallel, the highest price increases so far this year have been given inFurniture, cars, electric tools, sound equipment and microwave.

In Chile, he adds, in addition to the problems derived from the congestion in the productive and global distribution chains, "we have the effect of the abundant liquidity in homes due to early retreats of pension funds and the recent reinforcement of fiscal transfers."

That contributes to circulating more money in the country and generates a greater demand for products.

Argentina

The Argentine industry depends strongly on imported supplies.

The delay in the delivery of some parts and raw materials is generating shortage of different products,From appliances and computers to cars, footwear, construction items and even tennis balls.

The scarcity "is making the prices of these products rise, in a country in which annual inflation already exceeds 50%," says Verónica Sisk, a BBC world journalist in Argentina.

Si bien el problema tiene su origen la crisis logística internacional que ha generado interrupciones en la cadena de suministros, también se debe a un factor interno.

“Hay una estrategia del gobierno argentino de restringir algunas importaciones parafrenar la salida de dólares, ante una baja de reservas”, agrega Smink.

Otro bien escaso del cual dependen varias industrias son los envases de vidrio.

El aumento del consumo de alimentos y bebidas durante la cuarentena y el freno en la producción, hicieron que se consumieran losstocksde reserva en todo el planeta y la fabricación no ha logrado cubrir la demanda.

Esto está afectando principalmente a la industria vitivinícola argentina.

Mexico

Experts consulted by BBC Mundo point out that, unlike other Latin American countries, in Mexico there are no problems to meet demand.

Sergio Quiñonez, national vice president of the National Association of Importers and Exporters of the Mexican Republic (Anierm), says in dialogue with BBC Mundo that"No product shortage has been seen."

"It won't be Christmas in ships as some people say," he adds.

One of the reasons that have contributed to not taking traffic jams in the arrival of imported products, he explains, is that one of the largest ports in the country, Manzanillo, has had the ability to receive a greater flow of vessels, even greater than 2019.

Now, if there is something that is affecting Mexican importers, it is the escalation in the price of the sea freight of the containers that come from Asia to Mexico.

The average value of a container used to be US $ 2,500 and has now risen to US $ 15,000. That is to say,An increase in the maritime transport value of 500%.

To that increase is added the rise in the price of road freight, which has risen 30%.

Those costs, he explains, may probably end up being transferred to consumers.

Amapola Grijalva, president of the Chamber of Commerce and Technology Mexico-China, confirms to BBC Mundo that the cost of the containers has been fired to bring products from Asian countries.

"All product deliveries are with a fairly significant delay."

If before the trip of a container from China to Mexico was about 45 days, says Grijalva, today is 90 or 100.

"We import a lot of things from China. 75% are parts, components and equipment, that is, machines. And 25% are consumer products. When you bring a ship full of co -tensions, it brings everything. That is why it affects industry and commerce."

Despite this backdrop, he adds, “the stores are allocated andThere are no scarcity signs, only delayIn the delivery of products, ”he says.

For his part, Héctor Tejada, president of the Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services and Tourism of Mexico, argues that he has no information about problems with the supply chain.

"So far no affectation, shortage or scarcity is expected," he tells BBC Mundo, referring to the availability of products for one of the epochs of higher sales in Mexico called "The Good End" that goes from November 10 to 16.

However, a recent study by DRIP Capital Mexico indicated that the shortage of supplies for the production of electronic devices and the lack of containers can cause lower product availabilitytextiles, juguetes y de electrónica (sobre todo, telefonía y computación)en épocas de alto consumo.

Como México es uno de los mayores fabricantes de autos del mundo, “la escasez global de chips o semiconductores está afectando alsector automotrizhasta el punto de que algunas fábricas tuvieron que parar o reducir turnos de trabajo”, explica Marcos Gonzalez, corresponsal de BBC Mundo en México.

Solo en septiembre, la industria produjo un 33% menos que el mismo mes de 2020 en plena pandemia.

“Analistas creen que esta escasez podría prolongarse y seguir afectando a México hasta inicios de 2023″, agrega.

Esta semana la consultora IHS Markit alertó sobre potenciales efectos en el mercado automotriz.

"We foresee that there could be no availability of products in December because the United States will monopolize the volume," said Guido Vildozo.

And in the food sector, the Bank of Mexico also attributed to the lack of inputs and logistics problems the escalation in the price of thecorn tortilla, fundamental element of the Mexican diet, whose value increased almost 30% in the last year.

Producers ensure that the increase is due to the increase in inputs such as flour, electricity and gas price.

Brazil: drought affects water availability and coffee harvest

The most severe drought in Brazil in almost a century is partly guilty of this year's disappointing coffee.

Combined with frost and the natural cycle of crops, it has contributed to a significant fall in production.

The challenges for coffee producers have been aggravated by high maritime transport costs and container scarcity.

It is likely that the growing costs are transferred to coffee prices worldwide, since Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of the product.

Since most of the country's electricity comes fromHydroelectric energyof reservoirs, the lack of water is having a direct impact on the energy supply in the country.

As energy prices rise, authorities ask citizens to limit their electricity consumption to avoid rationing.